Simon Heffer, economics illiterate

Today, Simon Heffer tries his hand at economic analysis in his column in the Telegraph, and demonstrates to all and sundry that he knows nothing whatsoever about the subject. He sets the tone thus:

We need not blind ourselves with the technical details of the liquidity crisis enveloping so many financial institutions.

Then having made a virtue out of ignorance he sums up the global economy in one incisive sentence:

We are saving too little and borrowing far, far too much. Not just in Britain, but around the world, we have gone on a spending spree.

Right, well unbeknownst to Simon, when people spend money it does not evaporate, rather it passes to some other party and is further utilised, spent, invested or whatever. What he is actually saying is that the problem is that there has been too much economic activity, which is absurd unless you genuinely think it is better for people to be poorer. What is actually going on is that it has become apparent that some types of financial instruments cannot be accurately priced, which means that the risk of lending to institutions with the things on their books cannot be gauged. The dodgy assets are based on packaged up mortgages from the US which has seen an unsustainable property boom and a great deal of mis-sold mortgages as a result. It is one of the glories of the globalised economy that bad loans from Iowa can end up in Stuttgart but there you are. Having ignored the 'details' Simon gets on with pointing the finger, and in a complete departure from his usual form, he says that it is Gordon Brown's fault:

Much of this problem domestically is the fault of none other than our Prime Minister. When Chancellor, he set the inflation target for the Bank of England, and he set it too high. The supply of money in the economy has for years grown at an unsustainably high rate.

What this means is that Simon thinks that UK interest rates have been too low. He doesn't explain what on earth this has to do with a credit crunch caused by a US property crash, though. Anyway, his central point is that it is all going to end in tears because there is too much personal debt, and he harks back to the Victorians as an exemplar on how things should be organised. All I would say to that is why stop there? Maybe iron-age Britain had a few things to teach us too when it comes to managing international finance in the 21st century? It is also interesting to read a supposed admirer of Margaret Thatcher effectively trashing the concepts of free markets and personal freedom with gems like:

Those sensible Victorians used to lock people up for debt...

and

It might not be a bad idea to lock up a few reckless lenders as well...

That is economics by a committee of Fidel Castro, Robert Mugabe and Lenin. Does anyone still believe that Simon is a Conservative?

Later on Simon returns to more familiar ground in attacking David Cameron, this time for going up in the polls by espousing the sort of Right-wing policies that Simon pretends to endorse. So in Hefferworld no one is right, except for Simon of course.

Basildon Emergency Control Room opened

Hope for the best, but plan for the worst. That is a pretty good maxim for a Local Authority like Basildon District Council, so we have put a deal of time of energy into emergency planning. This now includes a high-tech control room to manage the sorts of things that we hope will never happen. Unfortunately the occasionally do, for example we had a very bad fire in Billericay at a workshop site in January that led to an evacuation of local residents. From an emergency response perspective at least it went very well, and the same team that ran that situation are now even better equipped.

Jihadi terrorists in Germany

Al Qaeda is back, or at least one of its affiliates. Three men have been arrested in Germany for plotting suicide attacks on against a US military base in Ramstein and Frankfurt airport. Of course, it wasn't the buildings they were after, it was the people and this time at least the terrorists have been cheated of their grim bonus of death. Interestingly, it seems that two of the arrestees are Islamic converts, illustrating once again that there is a political Islam that is sweeping up all of the nihilist sociopaths that once killed in the name of revolutionary Marxism. So, a good day for civilisation you might think. Well, there will almost certainly be some who don't agree. The same strand of illogic that thinks that the terrorist attacks of the 11th of September were a put-up job doesn't even believe that Islamic terrorism exists except as a cat's paw for some shadowy global conspiracy led by the governments of the West. They will certainly dismiss this latest news as disinformation because it clashes with their paranoid worldview and the danger is that if this meme were to get anywhere then somone's guard might come down and people might end up dead. At the very least this sort of nonsense is an effective vehicle for separating the credulous from their cash for all sorts of paranoia-focussed products.

Of course, this is a good day for civilisation, and that is both Islamic and Judeo-Christian. The nutcases will just have to deal with it.

Simon Heffer thinks the Tories are self hating and gloats about it

There is another hatchet job on the Conservative Party by Simon Heffer in the Telegraph. His position is that though he disagrees with Gordon Brown, the man is a fantastic politician who should use his spike in the polls to call an election sharpish before it all goes wrong. Meanwhile, David Cameron is a lefty who hates his own party. This last is based on Cameron supposedly disliking people who would ‘cut taxes, control immigration, and lock up criminals’. No actual evidence is presented for this, because actually there is none, and Heffer hilariously illustrates this later on in his column by criticising the Party for ‘talking tough on crime and immigration’. Which is it Simon? They can’t both be true. One substantive issue is that George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, has stated that an incoming Conservative government would maintain the same general level of spending as Labour. Simon froths at this, and pretends that this means that the Conservatives would spend the money on the same things, and perpetuate government waste. No-one has said that except, well, Simon, but he gets very excited about it all the same.

His big point is that apart from European Constitution issue, which he tries to play down, there is no reason to vote Conservative. Simon is not really exercised about the state of the country. He goes through the motions of criticising the Labour government, but he only gets really animated when bashing the Tories. The tactic is to supposedly position himself on the Right so that his criticism is even more telling, but where is he really coming from? Anyone who really cared for our country would be angry at soldiers returning in body bags for want of equipment, angry at a welfare system that makes it rational for poor families not to work or save, or even stay together, and angry that our once fully-funded pension system has been wrecked. These aren't just the fault of the Labour government they are the specific fault of Gordon Brown, but Simon glosses over details like that. For him David Cameron is the root of all evil and his successive columns have read like a broken record on the subject. Well, Simon isn't any kind of Conservative I recognise. We care. Simon is too impressed with Gordon Brown, and himself, for that.

Labour slips, election off

An early election was always going to be a bit of a punt. Brown gets in and polls well over the summer and suddenly the press is a fever with talk of an early date. The Telegraph went so far as to advise the Prime Minister to go early on the basis that the economy might deteriorate and all might be lost. Now summer is over and a bit of sanity is creeping in. The polls show Brown’s lead slipping, and that he is doing even less well in the marginal seats. This has brought home to some commentators what a risk an early election would be. It might work, but then again it might make Brown a contender for the shortest-serving Prime Minister in history. Nothing about the man suggests that he is a risk-taker of this magnitude, and those pumping out the free advice won't be the ones derided in the history books if it all goes wrong. Most senior politicians are serious men who don't regard politics as some sort of elite sport. Brown is certainly a serious man, and he will hope and believe that his policies can make a difference to our country and so garner the sort of support that does not making the timing of an election subject to a sudden spike in the polls. Actually, I think he is wrong about that, but it is not what I think, or what the press think, or even what his entourage thinks, it is what he thinks that matters.

Wickford Town Centre Planning Application

In parallel with the search for a development partner for the redevelopment of Wickford Town Centre , Family Mosaic and Basildon Council have put in a planning application that will serve to scope a part of the area covered by the Wickford Master Plan.

This is the press release:

PLANS FOR £120M REGENERATION OF WICKFORD WELCOMED BY COUNCIL LEADER

Ambitious plans for the multi-million pound regeneration of Wickford town centre have moved a step closer.

A planning application for the first phase of the £120m scheme has been submitted by Basildon Council, along with the developers Family Mosaic.

The proposals could see the development of 48 new homes, along with a new swimming pool, health centre, library and public square in Market Avenue and Market Road.

Council leader, Malcolm Buckley, welcomed the blueprint, saying it would breathe new life into the town.

“This is the next stage in our plans to regenerate Wickford town centre and instil a new pride in the town.

“If they are approved, the plans will provide new high quality homes for local people and better access to modern health, leisure and community facilities.

“This is an exciting opportunity to meet the aspirations of Wickford residents for better homes, shops and public services.

“We are delighted that the plans are on the table and will be considering them through our normal planning process.”

Under the plans, 48 new homes could be developed on the former sheltered housing scheme at Willow Court.

Wickford health centre could also be transformed into a modern clinic with specialist
facilities.

The blueprint includes further plans to redevelop Wickford swimming pool on its existing site, build a new library and create a public square.

Local residents are being invited to have their say on the plans during two forthcoming consultation events.

They are taking place on 22 and 29 September in Wickford Community Centre from 12.30pm to 4.30pm.

Rumsfeld was incompetent over Iraq, er, we know

There is a bit of a furore over comments in the biography of the former head of the British Army, General Sir Michael Jackson, that the US in general, and Donald Rumsfeld in particular, got it wrong in planning the post-war period in Iraq. It is astonishing that this even constitutes news, much less causes excitement. Everyone knows that the invasion and its aftermath were badly planned at a strategic level and that war-fighting and reconstruction were not joined up at a tactical level. The manifest failures of then Secretary of Defence Rumsfeld have been itemised and dissected, from his obsession with airpower and so-called 'light' ground forces, to his refusal to put more troops on the ground. The complete absence of realistic post-war planning and the creation of a security vacuum by disbanding the Iraqi army and police with anything to replace them are matters of record, not revelation. That anyone thinks General Jackson's views are particularly significant at this point in time is a surprise. It was a screw-up, we know, and while there is always some virtue in historical analysis, this is not adding much to the public body of knowledge on the Iraqi war.

General Jackson's book is being serialised in the Telegraph, and I look forward to reading the bits where he agreed that disbanding infantry battalions while the army was fighting two wars was a good idea or where he allowed the army's transport helicopter support to shrink down to the current derisory level. Maybe he can explain why our troops are still using landrovers that were designed for Northern Ireland in Iraq and Afghanistan when those vehicles offer almost no protection against modern weapons.

Rumsfeld was certainly incompetent, but he wasn't the only one.

9/11 'Truth' Correspondence

The problem with 9/11 conspiracy theories in not just that they are nonsense but that they support deeply flawed world-views that operate at different levels of paranoia and distrust. There is some evidence that these can be corrosive in themselves, but they also lay people open to exploitation by unscrupulous individuals for material gain. Hook someone with 9/11 'Truth' and then you can sell them lots of other ideas, and lots of other stuff as well. Books, DVDs, T-shirts are all grist to the mill of the well-developed conspiracy industry. So, arguing against 9/11 idiocy is not just about the ideas, it is trying to prevent people parting with their cash and chunks of their lives at the behest of charlatans.

In that context, I had an email, and since it was open and sent to many other recipients other that myself, a public response is in order:

This is an open letter.


Dear Mr Horgan,

I read with interest your article snapping at Mr Fisk for questioning the official version of 911.

Criticising, actually.

I suppose you did not study Physics at school, College or University - this is clearly evident from the Physically illiterate article you have written.

Undergraduate level physics, as if it matters.

Can I confirm that I have read the NIST report in full, from cover to cover, and you are WRONG, the actual NIST report (not the fakes) states on 911 both the 110 floor building came to ground in less than 10 seconds. Indeed the NIST report claims one building fell faster than free fall speed in a vacuum at sea level.

The US National Institute of Science and Technology (NIST) says that the speed of the debris hitting the ground approximated that which would have been expected from freefall. What am I wrong about?

Indeed we have copious video evidence and seismic data which clearly proves both twin towers came down in less than 10 seconds each.

Well, NIST don't think so:

NIST estimated the elapsed times for the first exterior panels to strike the ground after the collapse initiated in each of the towers to be approximately 11 seconds for WTC 1 and approximately 9 seconds for WTC 2. These elapsed times were based on: (1) precise timing of the initiation of collapse from video evidence, and (2) ground motion (seismic) signals recorded at Palisades, N.Y., that also were precisely time-calibrated for wave transmission times from lower Manhattan (see NCSTAR 1-5A).

and

From video evidence, significant portions of the cores of both buildings (roughly 60 stories of WTC 1 and 40 stories of WTC 2) are known to have stood 15 to 25 seconds after collapse initiation before they, too, began to collapse. Neither the duration of the seismic records nor video evidence (due to obstruction of view caused by debris clouds) are reliable indicators of the total time it took for each building to collapse completely.

Now look here, you can play your silly little political games and lie and cheat and basically make yourselves look like clowns, or you can start to accept Scientific facts and question the ludicrous "conspiracy theory" which is the official narrative.

What political games? My party is in opposition in the UK? There are no scientific facts that support the 9/11 'Truth' industry.

For clear Physics proof of why 911 was a "False Flag" "Inside job" demolition (after jet impacts), I have enclosed a letter recently sent to the BBC , which clearly explains why 911 was a controlled demolition including the simple maths.

This calculated that a very simple model of the twin towers shows a collapse time slightly more that 10 seconds. It does not contradict the observed facts, and it certainly provides no evidence of a controlled demolition.

I openly challenge the whole of Physics, Engineering and Science to prove this physics hypothesis and maths incorrect.

What hypothesis? It is deeply flawed logic to calculate that mathematically the towers behave more or less as they did in real life, announce it must have been a controlled demolition and then demand to be disproved. If you have a theory the onus for evidence is on you, not on everyone else to prove a negative.

The claim is that the US government committed mass murder of its own citizens. I would have thought that if someone were going to believe that then they would have to have a weight of convincing evidence. Clearly, I was wrong.

Laindon Centre in new ownership

After a protracted purchase process, the Laindon Centre has a new owner, with the promise of comprehensive regeneration. If you don't know it, Laindon Town Centre is a decaying sixties disaster that desperately needs bulldozing and replacing with the quality development that the traders there and the people of Laindon deserve. This was the press release:

LAINDON REGENERATION LLP

Press Release

28^th August 2007

LAINDON REGENERATION TAKES A STEP FORWARD

New plans for Laindon town centre have taken a step forward with the news that Laindon Regeneration LLP, a division of Colonnade Group, has completed the purchase of the Laindon Centre from Lakehill Investments. Currently, much of the existing centre is in poor condition.

Plans for a major redevelopment of the existing 1960s shopping centre are currently being prepared and will be the subject of public consultation with local residents and businesses on 13^th, 14^th and 15^th September. Laindon Regeneration believes that Laindon is well positioned to take advantage of the Thames Gateway developments as it is on a major road junction, close to both the A13 and A127, with rail access to London in 30 minutes via Laindon Station.

Alastair Watson, Chief Executive of Colonnade Group said,

“We are delighted to have completed the purchase of the Laindon Centre and are committed to delivering a high quality development of new shops and homes. Public consultation is at the heart of our approach and we are looking forward to this in September when local residents and businesses can have their say.”

Councillor Stephen Horgan, Cabinet Member for Regeneration and Development, said:

“We are delighted that Laindon Regeneration has now formally completed the purchase of the Laindon Centre. We have been deeply concerned about its continued deterioration and the damage this has done to the community of Laindon. We are now confident that Laindon Regeneration will be moving things forward with haste and enthusiasm, and we look forward to the public consultation in September.”

Angela Smith MP welcomed the announcement, saying;

"The Laindon Centre urgently needs to be updated and improved to provide a better service for local residents. I would like to encourage as many people as possible to take part in the proposed consultation, to help shape this exciting and innovative new development."

Chris Balch, Chairman of the Basildon Renaissance Partnership, says:

“A key priority for Basildon is the regeneration of our town centres, and we also welcome the news that the regeneration of this major focal point for the local community is in the pipeline. This is another clear indication that the private sector is confident and willing to invest in the Basildon District, and can see the great opportunities that exist in the area. We look forward to supporting all parties in bringing this scheme forward and giving the community of Laindon a town centre fit for the modern age.”

Cameron goes firm on Crime

David Cameron’s approach to the crime crisis has been thoroughly measured, but now it is detailed. Conservative proposals include building prisons, local accountability for the police, and an end to early release for prisoners, but there is also a recognition that society has to change. This means schools, parents, popular culture and most of all time. In contrast the government have popped out a couple of initiatives designed to grab headlines and then tried to spin that there is no real problem. Most interestingly, there has been almost no engagement by Gordon Brown, who is becoming a master of inactivity as far as talking to the public is concerned. While this is somewhat welcome compared to Tony Blair’s constant ham acting, the reticence that goes with being Chancellor is simply not part of a PM’s job description. A leader has to lead, and they cannot do that glowering alone in their office.

The polls show that Conservatives lead Labour by ten points on Law and Order. This is very significant because this is one of the key issues that people actually decides people’s votes. In fact, if you get Health, the Economy and Crime then that is usually the election, unless something very significant happens in the area of foreign affairs. Labour is also trailing on Health and the real economy is looking weak. Maybe there is a reason why Gordon is sulking.