Sunday, June 01, 2008

Poll Summary from Electoral Calculus

Considering the latest polls Electoral Calculus has it thus:

The Conservatives have continued to increase their lead over Labour following their
wins at the local elections and the Crewe and Nantwich by-election.

Populus (Times) has a Conservative lead of 11% (up from 10%), ComRes (Independent)
has 17% (up from 14%), ICM (Guardian) has 14% (up from 10%), and YouGov (Daily Telegraph)
sees the greatest lead of 24% (up from 14%). Ipsos-MORI have not published a poll this month.

Overall the Conservatives now have 43% on average and Labour are on 27%, a Conservative lead of 16%.
This is unprecedented in recent years. If this result were repeated at a general election,
it would compare with the 1983 victory of Mrs Thatcher's Conservative party over Michael Foot's
Labour party (Con 42%, Lab 28%).

The current prediction is that the Conservatives will have a majority of 92 seats,
winning 371 seats (+18 seats since 1 May 2008).

In one poll, YouGov for the Daily Telegraph, Labour is polling at their worst level ever. Brown has actually managed to do half a point worse that Michael Foot, which is saying something.

No comments: