Sunday, June 07, 2009

General election prediction - Conservative 98 seat majority

A new prediction has been posted on 4 June 2009 at Electoral Calculus.
During the expenses scandal in May, both major parties have lost support, though the Conservatives have slightly increased their lead over Labour. Populus (Times) has 20% (up from 13%), ICM (Sunday Telegraph) has 18% (up from 10%), Ipsos-MORI has 22% (up from 13%), but ComRes (Independent) has 8% (down from 19%), and YouGov (Daily Telegraph) has 16% (down from 18%).

Overall, the Conservative lead is 16%, which is 1% higher than last month. The current prediction is that the Conservatives will have a majority of 98 seats, winning 374 seats (+1 seat since 2 May 2009).

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