During the expenses scandal in May, both major parties have lost support, though the Conservatives have slightly increased their lead over Labour. Populus (Times) has 20% (up from 13%), ICM (Sunday Telegraph) has 18% (up from 10%), Ipsos-MORI has 22% (up from 13%), but ComRes (Independent) has 8% (down from 19%), and YouGov (Daily Telegraph) has 16% (down from 18%).
Overall, the Conservative lead is 16%, which is 1% higher than last month. The current prediction is that the Conservatives will have a majority of 98 seats, winning 374 seats (+1 seat since 2 May 2009).
Sunday, June 07, 2009
General election prediction - Conservative 98 seat majority
A new prediction has been posted on 4 June 2009 at Electoral Calculus.
Posted by Steve Horgan at 8:08:00 pm