Election prediction: Con 309 Lab 285, LibDem 22; Con short 17 of majority

A note from Electoral Calculus:

A new prediction has been posted on 1 January 2008 at www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

Recent polls show a continuing but smaller Conservative lead over Labour. Ipsos-MORI has a lead of 7% (down from 9%); Populus (Times) has 8% (up from -1%); CommRes (Independent) has 11% (down from 13%); ICM (Guardian) has 5% (down from 11%); and YouGov (Sunday Times) also has 5% (up from 11%).

Overall the Conservatives are now 7% ahead of Labour (down from 9%), which is enough to be the largest party, but not to form a majority. As a rule of thumb, the parties are level if the Conservative lead is around 5%. The Conservatives need a lead of about 10% to have a majority, and Labour needs a lead of about zero. The current prediction is that the Conservatives will be short 17 seats of a majority, winning 309 seats (-20 seats since 6 December 2007).