Labour Selection for Basildon

The Labour party have started their selection for the new parliamentary constituency of Basildon and Billericay. There is currently a Basildon Seat and a Billericay seat. In the future there will be the aforementioned Basildon and Billericay constituency and a South Basildon and East Thurrock constituency. Angela Smith, the sitting Labour MP for Basildon will probably go for the latter while John Baron, the sitting Conservative MP for Billericay will almost certainly defend the former. So, the Labour Party are, very decently, trying to find him an opponent.

According to the Electoral Calculus website, the numbers look like this:

Basildon and Billericay
Region: Essex
MP John Baron (CON)

Electorate	64,873	Turnout	60.20%
	2005 Votes	2005 Share	Prediction
CON	16,454	42.13%		44.94%
LAB	12,867	32.95%		29.18%
LIB	4,830	12.37%		9.86%
OTH	3,096	7.93%		11.39%
MIN	1,805	4.62%		4.62%
CON Majority	3,587	9.19%	Pred Maj	15.77%

Basildon South and East Thurrock
Region: Essex
MP Angela Smith (LAB)

Electorate	71,108	Turnout	58.95%
	2005 Votes	2005 Share	Prediction
LAB	17,363	41.42%		36.68%
CON	16,902	40.32%		43.51%
LIB	4,960	11.83%		9.44%
OTH	2,446	5.83%		9.78%
MIN	250	0.60%		0.60%
LAB Majority	461	1.10%	Pred Maj	6.84%	CON Gain

It looks like John's opponent has their work cut out. Oh, and Angela's in trouble.