Why Labour isn't dumping Brown

Simon Heffer writes a piece in which he suggests that the obvious course of action for the Parliamentary Labour party to get of Gordon Brown:

...Labour MPs know what to expect when a party continues to be loyal to an obviously defeated and discredited leader. The party soon loses so heavily that it is out of power for several terms. For many MPs, it is the end of a political career. Many ministers suffer a similar fate, eventually clawing their way back into employment only after two or three years of misery and humiliation. Does Labour want its own 1997?

Self-interest should dictate it does not.

If it was that obvious then why is nothing much happening? Gordon Brown is an electoral disaster who possesses none of the policy and character strengths of a John Major. That he has to go is indeed obvious, but it might not happen, and there is a reason for this. According to a parliamentary friend of mine, you have to think about who Labour MPs actually are. For most of them being an MP is the best job that they have ever had, more responsibility and better pay then they could command in the private sector. Most Conservatives on the other hand take pay cuts to enter parliament. So, let's say you are a Labour MP. You are on a majority of a few thousand and mathematically virtually certain to lose your seat at the next election. You have been told that a change of leader means an early election, which will make you unemployed. So, you back Gordon because at least that means nearly two more years in work. If there is going to be a coup it will come from those with majorities in the 6-8000 range who have everything to play for, but given Labour's arcane rules there aren't enough of them against the small majorities and the huge majorities who have no particular reason to dump Gordon. That is why he clings one.

Just where did you think the 'a new leader means an early election' stuff actually comes from?

Wat Tyler project well underway

Basildon's Conservative Council regeneration portfolio is not short of major projects. This reflects our activist approach to improving our community. Basildon Tories don't just sit about, we get things done despite jibes from our local Labour party. I remember a comment from a Labour Councillor a while ago while we were discussing our plans in a Council meeting along that lines that 'you haven't built anything yet'. Well the George Hurd Centre opened recently, a £2m centre for the elderly housing a day centre and offices for voluntary organisations working with the elderly. We have now been asked by the Audit Commission if they can use that project as an example of best practice by Local Authorities, because of the way we managed to get it built at no cost to the Council as part of a land swap deal that also saw the provision of affordable and social housing for our people. Our next opening is likely to be the Heritage Centre at Wat Tyler park, which has been paid for largely by Lottery funding and which will boost the attractiveness of what is already an excellent public asset. Building work is progressing well and the project is on time to complete for an opening next year. This compliments the other regeneration efforts in Pitsea, which are also proceeding apace.

The only cloud on the horizon is the general economic malaise, which has hit the property industry especially hard. This has had the effect of winnowing out poor projects around the country, and all of ours are still in progess, but recession and uncertainty are not friends of large-scale regeneration. Better national leadership can make a real difference here. Can we have some please?

Did you miss the Relaunch?

Was that it? This was supposedly the week where Gordon Brown fought back, releasing a series of eye-catching policies that put the government back onto the political offensive and started to rebuild trust and support among the electorate. Except he didn't. The Stamp Duty freeze was pitched only at the low end of the market and adds up to trivial money against the size of the housing market. The increased fuel allowance never happened. And, er.., that's it. In the middle of this of course Charles Clarke unleashed his broadside and, tellingly, Gordon Brown was only defended by a backbencher, a couple of junior ministers and Ed Balls, a man who would be standing next to the Prime Minister against the bullet-scarred wall if it all were to come to an end. The Cabinet kept quiet. No senior minister rallied to the boss. Not one. Meanwhile the polls stay awful and another Scottish by-election is coming up with even worse prospects than Glasgow East. Then there is Labour party conference where it is already being said that Gordon has to give the speech of his life. Huh? Most people don't watch party conference speeches and even if Gordon Brown makes a good speech it does nothing to change the dynamics of the situation. The reality is that the government is dysfunctional, and everyone knows it. Labour keep giving Gordon brown another month, then another month, to do what? If he could do something then he would have done it by now, unless he is some sort of political masochist.

The question is if the Labour party are political masochists.

UPDATE: After I had posted this I came across and article that puts me in the uncomfortable position of agreeing with Polly Toynbee. Or maybe it puts her in the uncomfortable position of agreeing with me...

'Labour is destined to disaster if we go on as we are'

So says Charles Clarke in the New Statesman, where he delivers a devastating critique of Brown's henchmen's use of the word 'Blairite' to marginalise anyone who criticises them. His is one of those who 'fear that Labour's current course will lead to utter destruction at the next general election' and states that 'we will not permit that to happen'. This is fighting talk, but his analysis of Labour's current situation is pretty much spot on. Brown is trying to characterise anyone who criticises him from within Labour's ranks as a malcontent supporter of the former Prime Minister, hoping to capitalise on the discomfort that many in Labour felt with their most successful Prime Minister, well, ever. What he isn't doing is anything to reverse his party's current poor electoral performance and historically low level of support. Over the last few days we saw the much heralded relaunch, which consisted of marginal unfunded support for the housing market that no expert thinks will make a blind bit of difference. In political terms it was like a pebble in a pond: a few ripples and then gone. Labour remain in their hole, with a party conference coming up that is likely to descend into civil war.

I'll get some popcorn in.

Darling vs. Brown

So, it wasn't a grand strategy then. When Darling spoke out he was freelancing, maybe thinking about his place in history, or finally discovering some shreds of self-respect. Whatever the reason, he told the truth as he saw it, for a short while at least. Brown wasted no time in putting Darling back into his box, but no-one could mistake his mumbled retreat for enthusiastic support for the Prime Minister. Of course, the problem with all of this is that the topic of disagreement is the British economy. Brown and Darling rowing about just how doomed we all are cannot but cause a loss of confidence, and that has translated into a mini-run on sterling which may in turn lead to people getting tossed out of their jobs and having their homes repossessed.

Dysfunctional government may be interesting spectacle, but we all have to live here.

The difference between boys and girls

My two small offspring were presented with similar soft toys in the shape of a pig.

Girl's choice of name: Piggy

Boy's choice of name: Lothar, destroyer of the undead.

Darling admits economy is tanking

The stock government response to the recession has been to downplay it, and when that didn't work to claim that things were worse under the Conservatives in the early 1990s. Given the daily reality that most people face the first was insulting and the second irrelevant. Now they are trying a new tack, actually admitting it's all rather bad, in fact the worst it has been for 60 years, which means since the great depression. At least Alastair Darling has said this, in an interview with the Guardian. So, this raises a question: is this a change of language from the government? Or is it just a change of language from the Chancellor in contrast to the claims from his boss that things aren't so bad? This story broke this evening in an interview for tomorrow's paper, so I would expect a vigorous journalistic follow-up over the next couple of days that will tell us if this really is a new strategy. My small experience of public policy is that admitting things are bad is quite a good idea when they are actually bad, with the important proviso that you then have to credibly sort them out. Admitting that all is gloom and then failing gets you nowhere. In fact it leaves you with nowhere to hide. In the murky world of Labour's internal politics, Darling might just have deliberately hung his boss out to dry. George Osborne certainly picked up on this when he asked "Who is telling the truth at the top of government?". Who indeed?

Brown and Darling driving British business abroad

Under Tony Blair Labour understood the importance of thriving business to Britain. Business provides jobs and brings in tax revenue and so any government of any stripe needs commerce to meet any other objectives that it may have. Brown and Darling have thrown that all away with incoherent tax policies that squeeze multinational businesses, presumably in some effort to placate the brothers in Transport House or their own back benches. Now British business is voting with their feet and becoming Irish business instead. Tax revenue and jobs are leaving our shores thanks to these two incompetents, who don't recognise that you cannot run a high-tax regime and expect everyone just to knuckle down and pay up. Even more stark is the news of revived US growth on the back of tax cuts and financial stimulus from their government. Meanwhile our hapless, dithering duo have done absolutely nothing to help British business and British people, except to trail plans about maybe changing Stamp Duty and wrecking the housing market in the process. This recession may have its origins abroad, but no government has done so little to deal with it than Brown's Labour shower.

Brown maybe a bright chap, but he has no leadership qualities that are at all evident. Darling is just his poodle, an empty suit without a shred of self-respect. They are dithering while our country needs help and it is unforgivable. Come the next election they will find out just how unforgiving the electorate can be.

John Baron MP says give teachers the powers they need to sort out discipline

Growing concerns over violence and disruption in schools and on the streets

John Baron MP has welcomed recent policy proposals announced by the Conservatives to restore classroom discipline and raise standards of behaviour in schools.

Life in local communities is being marred by violence and disruption in schools – and on the streets as well from children playing truant. These social problems hit the poorest areas the hardest. Bureaucratic rules imposed by the Labour Government have made it harder for teachers to keep order, while false allegations and assaults on teachers have never been higher.

Since 1997, across Essex, the number of permanent exclusions from secondary schools has fallen by 10% – not because of better discipline, but because it has become more difficult to exclude troublemakers.

Conservative proposals include:

· Restoring the authority of headteachers, by ending the right to appeal against exclusions to external panels. Parents would still have a right of appeal to school governors – who are the people who should decide such matters.

· Changing the law so that teachers can physically restrain violent pupils if they need to.
· Establishing new protections for teachers from false and malicious allegations.
· Give headteachers the freedom to pay bonuses to teachers who do a good job.
· Allow headteachers to ban any items they think may cause violence or disruption in schools.

John said:

“In too many of our schools, good education is ruined by bad behaviour. The problem doesn’t lie with teachers – but with the Government’s rules and regulations which stop teachers instilling proper discipline. Conservatives will give teachers and heads the powers they need to tackle disruptive kids, improve standards and ensure parents have a real choice over where to send their child.”

Latest Election Prediction

A new prediction has been posted on 24 August 2008 at

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

Polls in the recent few weeks show a stable, or slightly increasing, lead for the Conservatives over Labour. Populus (Times) has 16% (up by 3%), YouGov (Sunday Times) has 20% (down by 2%), and Ipsos-MORI has 24% (up by 4%). Unchanged are both ICM (Guardian) on 15% and today's ComRes (Independent on Sunday) on 21%.

Overall and on average, the Conservative lead is 19%, which is 1% higher than last month, and a historical record for recent years.

The current prediction is that the Conservatives will have a majority of 172 seats, winning 411 seats (+6 seats since 27 July 2008).